What stock exchange firm do you work for? Is it true that you accumulate a big holding of a stock for all of your clients and then write good things about that stock in your newspaper column so that millions of investors will read about the stock? And when all these people who read about the stock think it’s good, they buy the stock and push it up to a much higher price than what your clients paid, and then you sell it at a profit, don’t you?
Is this how you pay for your big, plush office and big staff? Your huge, multi-million-dollar home and your fancy golf club? Your expensive Mercedes and vacations in Europe?
I think this is terrible and illegal and that you should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law by the New York Stock Exchange and the Securities Exchange Commission people.
I don’t know who you’ve been talking to, but it certainly ain’t the Internal Revenue Service, my barber, my accountant or Kenny Hee, who owns the second best Chinese restaurant in Central Florida. But it’s always a hoot to hear from a reader like you. Even though your questions derive from an enormous superfluity of ignorance and anger, they are fair questions and rightly deserve to be answered.
My 15-by-20-foot office, where I employ 1.5 people, is scrunched between a beauty salon and a travel bureau. It’s located in an older, declining, 31-year-old business center that’s also home to a podiatrist, a chiropractor, a physical therapy center and a Fifth Third branch bank. My office is furnished with second- and third-hand furniture, two IBM wheel-writer typewriters, a couple of computers and an air conditioning unit that’s as old as the original wallpapering and carpets.
I live in a modest house, in a modest neighborhood, in a modest community, and I drive a diesel and an SUV, both of which are American-made. I’m not employed by a brokerage; I don’t play golf, and I’ve not been to Europe in a decade.
I write three columns for weekly publication, and if you objectively read them, common sense will tell you that the brokerage industry and I agree on only one thing: that stocks will go up and that stocks will go down. This column is anathema to the sales practices and products of the brokerage industry.
It’s so anathema, in fact, that on numerous occasions, Merrill Lynch and other brokerages have tried to silence the column through the NYSE, the National Association of Securities Dealers and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
A consultant is a guy with grey hair so he can appear distinguished and hemorrhoids so he can look concerned. And I’m a consultant for several large retirement plans, in which I help the company define and select short-, medium- and long-term investment objectives. Then I help that company to select a money manager or managers who we think may best represent the plan’s objectives. And finally, I monitor the money manager or managers to be sure they’re meeting the plan’s objectives. I do not tell them when to invest or what investments to buy, nor do I tell them where to place their trades.
And if a retiring or retired employee needs to employ a personal money manager, I may be asked to help that person locate a professional he can trust. I do not buy or sell stocks for anybody. I do not have any interest in any brokerage accounts (except family accounts), and I do not participate in any commission arrangements.
I write this column because it gives me enormous satisfaction to know that over the years, it has has helped millions of investors make appropriate decisions and that their lives are much better for it. And I am reminded of this by the emails and letters I receive from folks unlike you.
2012年2月20日星期一
2012年2月19日星期日
Robert Winningham a long way from winning Indiana congressional seat
Maybe less than five minutes into our talk, Lee Hamilton was mentioned. It would happen again and again, in a rather rushed morning conversation.
It must keep happening, with whomever he talks, for Robert Winningham to stand much chance of winning Hamilton’s old congressional seat, from Indiana’s 9th District. That’s my assumption.
The seat is currently held by Todd Young, a Republican, who is defending it for the first time.
Winningham, 50, of Charlestown, is among four Democratic challengers and is a former Hamilton aide. Winningham’s credibility is at least loosely linked to Hamilton’s. As advantages go, that’s a dandy.
“My background with Lee certainly doesn’t hurt,” Winningham said.
Hamilton served 34 years before retiring. He well might still be in office, had he wanted.
Winningham is neither a Hoosier by birth nor by relatively recent residency, however. He moved back here, from his native Texas, and promptly took on the campaign. “I consider this to be home,” Winningham said.
After what he calls his best-ever job review, Winningham gave up an economic developer’s post in the Dallas suburbs to go Quixotic. “I was restless,” he said.
Young is not invincible and, for that matter, has opposition in the GOP primary. Congress tends to be about as popular as hemorrhoids. And in his brief stint, Young has not found much chance to impact Southern Indiana beyond a reasonable doubt.
The district’s boundaries have been dramatically altered, as well. It now is more a north-south district than an east-west one. It is appreciably more Republican. But in some spots, Young is probably little better known than his opponents.
That said, Young will have all the campaign cash he needs and probably an anti-President Barack Obama wind at his back. Republicans could dominate the top of the 2012 ticket in Indiana.
Relentlessly upbeat, Winningham must know all this. He also trusts people’s encouragement and reconnects with everyone he can with whom his ties are not just political.
Winningham coached swimming in Jeffersonville, including at the high school. Bob Bottorff, who swam for Winningham and is now a lawyer, is chairing this campaign.
Bottorff says Winningham’s success in bringing jobs to Texas sets him apart. “That is the key,” he said. “Whether that is successful, it is what our district needs.”
Adam Dickey, a former aide for Young’s predecessor, Baron Hill, is Winningham’s political director. He echoes the idea that Winningham is the best-experienced guy for the troubled economy.
Dickey also said Winningham, despite having been gone more than a decade, remains impressively familiar. “It amazes me, how many people he stayed in contact with and knows,” Dickey said.
Winningham visited Hamilton last summer and the old boss ticked off the challenges Winningham accepts. Hamilton has not endorsed Winningham. If one comes, that’s obviously great, Winningham said.
As director of the Center on Congress, though, Hamilton tries to stay above the fray. But Hamilton predicted Winningham will have fun.
It’s obviously a lot more fun to win.
Winningham’s Democratic foes are Jonathan George of Bedford, John Griffin Miller of Corydon and John Tilford of Bloomington.
It must keep happening, with whomever he talks, for Robert Winningham to stand much chance of winning Hamilton’s old congressional seat, from Indiana’s 9th District. That’s my assumption.
The seat is currently held by Todd Young, a Republican, who is defending it for the first time.
Winningham, 50, of Charlestown, is among four Democratic challengers and is a former Hamilton aide. Winningham’s credibility is at least loosely linked to Hamilton’s. As advantages go, that’s a dandy.
“My background with Lee certainly doesn’t hurt,” Winningham said.
Hamilton served 34 years before retiring. He well might still be in office, had he wanted.
Winningham is neither a Hoosier by birth nor by relatively recent residency, however. He moved back here, from his native Texas, and promptly took on the campaign. “I consider this to be home,” Winningham said.
After what he calls his best-ever job review, Winningham gave up an economic developer’s post in the Dallas suburbs to go Quixotic. “I was restless,” he said.
Young is not invincible and, for that matter, has opposition in the GOP primary. Congress tends to be about as popular as hemorrhoids. And in his brief stint, Young has not found much chance to impact Southern Indiana beyond a reasonable doubt.
The district’s boundaries have been dramatically altered, as well. It now is more a north-south district than an east-west one. It is appreciably more Republican. But in some spots, Young is probably little better known than his opponents.
That said, Young will have all the campaign cash he needs and probably an anti-President Barack Obama wind at his back. Republicans could dominate the top of the 2012 ticket in Indiana.
Relentlessly upbeat, Winningham must know all this. He also trusts people’s encouragement and reconnects with everyone he can with whom his ties are not just political.
Winningham coached swimming in Jeffersonville, including at the high school. Bob Bottorff, who swam for Winningham and is now a lawyer, is chairing this campaign.
Bottorff says Winningham’s success in bringing jobs to Texas sets him apart. “That is the key,” he said. “Whether that is successful, it is what our district needs.”
Adam Dickey, a former aide for Young’s predecessor, Baron Hill, is Winningham’s political director. He echoes the idea that Winningham is the best-experienced guy for the troubled economy.
Dickey also said Winningham, despite having been gone more than a decade, remains impressively familiar. “It amazes me, how many people he stayed in contact with and knows,” Dickey said.
Winningham visited Hamilton last summer and the old boss ticked off the challenges Winningham accepts. Hamilton has not endorsed Winningham. If one comes, that’s obviously great, Winningham said.
As director of the Center on Congress, though, Hamilton tries to stay above the fray. But Hamilton predicted Winningham will have fun.
It’s obviously a lot more fun to win.
Winningham’s Democratic foes are Jonathan George of Bedford, John Griffin Miller of Corydon and John Tilford of Bloomington.
2012年2月16日星期四
Symptoms Of Hemorrhoids And The Way To Spot Them
Hemorrhoids is a condition that many people have to unfortunately live with in pain.
Even though not everyone seems to be knowledgeable about what they are or recognize the signs to know if they have them. In many instances, the signs of hemorrhoids are mixed with other such conditions. Although people don't like to have hemorrhoids, we sometimes have to suffer with them, but there are plenty of methods to treat them. This article will help you to be aware of a few hemorrhoid symptoms.
The severity level of hemorrhoids ranges from first to fourth degree, and doctors differentiate between internal and external. The biggest difference is between the internal and external type, as when you have internal hemorrhoids they are not visible without a medical examination. An anti-inflammatory from the pharmacy should be enough to treat your hemorrhoids if they only happen occasionally and don't cause extreme discomfort.
Hemorroids can be easily diagnosed according to your medical history, symptoms, and an examination. If necessary, your doctor may want to examine you using an anoscopy which is just a means of visible inspection that illuminates the affected area in your anus/rectum. If hemorrhoids are confirmed, then of course there will be some changes in order with regard to diet and other areas. The condition oftens responds very well and is manageable, but sometimes surgery is needed to address more severe cases. In many instances, the symptoms of hemorrhoids can be controlled by natural remedies and medicines you can buy at the pharmacy.
The diet you consume can either be a big help or do alotof harm where your hemorrhoid symptoms are concerned. A lack of fiber in your diet, for example, can make you constipated, which can contribute to hemorrhoids. There are alot of people who believe that spicy foods irritate hemorrhoid symptoms after eaten. If this is the case with you, the best approach is to eat a diet high in fiber while avoiding hot and spicy foods as much as possible. You may also want to avoid unhealthy fats and junk foods as a general rule. Hemorroids and obesity are both caused by these types of foods.
Hemorrhoids is the kind of painful condition nobody wants to have. Yet, so many people in the more "advanced" societies seem to encounter this condition. While most of the time the symptoms do not require medical intervention, if they get bad enough then you could require surgery. The best course of action is to never ignore this condition if you think you have them.
These suggestions can assist you with the hemorrhoids, having said that if you truly desire to enjoy the best results a well-known program to eliminate hemorrhoids is very recommended. Have a look at this website page on H Miracle book and find out about a very popular step by step system to shrink hemorrhoids naturally.
Even though not everyone seems to be knowledgeable about what they are or recognize the signs to know if they have them. In many instances, the signs of hemorrhoids are mixed with other such conditions. Although people don't like to have hemorrhoids, we sometimes have to suffer with them, but there are plenty of methods to treat them. This article will help you to be aware of a few hemorrhoid symptoms.
The severity level of hemorrhoids ranges from first to fourth degree, and doctors differentiate between internal and external. The biggest difference is between the internal and external type, as when you have internal hemorrhoids they are not visible without a medical examination. An anti-inflammatory from the pharmacy should be enough to treat your hemorrhoids if they only happen occasionally and don't cause extreme discomfort.
Hemorroids can be easily diagnosed according to your medical history, symptoms, and an examination. If necessary, your doctor may want to examine you using an anoscopy which is just a means of visible inspection that illuminates the affected area in your anus/rectum. If hemorrhoids are confirmed, then of course there will be some changes in order with regard to diet and other areas. The condition oftens responds very well and is manageable, but sometimes surgery is needed to address more severe cases. In many instances, the symptoms of hemorrhoids can be controlled by natural remedies and medicines you can buy at the pharmacy.
The diet you consume can either be a big help or do alotof harm where your hemorrhoid symptoms are concerned. A lack of fiber in your diet, for example, can make you constipated, which can contribute to hemorrhoids. There are alot of people who believe that spicy foods irritate hemorrhoid symptoms after eaten. If this is the case with you, the best approach is to eat a diet high in fiber while avoiding hot and spicy foods as much as possible. You may also want to avoid unhealthy fats and junk foods as a general rule. Hemorroids and obesity are both caused by these types of foods.
Hemorrhoids is the kind of painful condition nobody wants to have. Yet, so many people in the more "advanced" societies seem to encounter this condition. While most of the time the symptoms do not require medical intervention, if they get bad enough then you could require surgery. The best course of action is to never ignore this condition if you think you have them.
These suggestions can assist you with the hemorrhoids, having said that if you truly desire to enjoy the best results a well-known program to eliminate hemorrhoids is very recommended. Have a look at this website page on H Miracle book and find out about a very popular step by step system to shrink hemorrhoids naturally.
2012年2月15日星期三
Do You Know The Distinct Symptoms Of Hemorrhoids?
There are quite a few symptoms of hemorrhoids, and they will vary depending on what is causing your condition, what kind you have and how severe your particular case is. No matter what the reason for your hemorrhoids, you want to be able to get rid of them as quickly as possible. In order to successfully achieve this goal you need a good understanging of your condition. We will walk you through a few of the symptoms of hemorrhoids.
Hemorrhoids get categorized by type, internal and external, and level of severity which ranges from first degree to fourth. Internal hemorrhoids are not visible without a medical examination, which is the biggest difference between the two types. If you only have hemorrhoids occasionally, and your symptoms are not causing you extreme discomfort, you probably won't need anything more than anti-inflammatory medication that you buy at the pharmacy or prescribed by your doctor. Skin irritation, mucus discharge, itching or bleeding when having a bowel movement are all symptoms of hemorrhoids. The inflammation of internal hemorrhoids is what generally causes these symptoms. These symptoms, which are usually not very painful, can be treated with over the counter medications, in most cases. If you experience bleeding regularly, you need to see your doctor as this can be a symptom of a more serious condition.
You can try to manage hemorrhoids yourself after first noticing the symptoms. Taking over the counter medication to deal with the pain, you can usually treat hemorrhoids by improving your diet, drinking lots of water, and getting more exercise. If these lifestyle changes are effective at controlling your symptoms, then making them permanent will help prevent the hemorrhoids from recurring in the future. Your doctor may prescribe a stronger medication if these changes aren't enough by themselves. The main symptom of hemorrhoids is extreme pain or discomfort in the anal area. You're in luck however, hemorrhoids do not usually last for a long time. If your symptoms last a long time and are not getting better from any of the treatments above you should see your doctor. It may be that you are one of the unlucky few who require a different treatment method. Your symptoms may vary from what your heard here. Most people, fortunately, are able to control their hemorrhoids, either on their own or with medical help.
These guidelines can help you with your hemorrhoids problem, still if you truly want to get the very best results a complete plan to shrink hemorrhoids is definitely recommended.
Hemorrhoids get categorized by type, internal and external, and level of severity which ranges from first degree to fourth. Internal hemorrhoids are not visible without a medical examination, which is the biggest difference between the two types. If you only have hemorrhoids occasionally, and your symptoms are not causing you extreme discomfort, you probably won't need anything more than anti-inflammatory medication that you buy at the pharmacy or prescribed by your doctor. Skin irritation, mucus discharge, itching or bleeding when having a bowel movement are all symptoms of hemorrhoids. The inflammation of internal hemorrhoids is what generally causes these symptoms. These symptoms, which are usually not very painful, can be treated with over the counter medications, in most cases. If you experience bleeding regularly, you need to see your doctor as this can be a symptom of a more serious condition.
You can try to manage hemorrhoids yourself after first noticing the symptoms. Taking over the counter medication to deal with the pain, you can usually treat hemorrhoids by improving your diet, drinking lots of water, and getting more exercise. If these lifestyle changes are effective at controlling your symptoms, then making them permanent will help prevent the hemorrhoids from recurring in the future. Your doctor may prescribe a stronger medication if these changes aren't enough by themselves. The main symptom of hemorrhoids is extreme pain or discomfort in the anal area. You're in luck however, hemorrhoids do not usually last for a long time. If your symptoms last a long time and are not getting better from any of the treatments above you should see your doctor. It may be that you are one of the unlucky few who require a different treatment method. Your symptoms may vary from what your heard here. Most people, fortunately, are able to control their hemorrhoids, either on their own or with medical help.
These guidelines can help you with your hemorrhoids problem, still if you truly want to get the very best results a complete plan to shrink hemorrhoids is definitely recommended.
2012年2月14日星期二
White corn recipes for a healthier you
WHITE corn was once viewed as a "food for the poor," and hardly occupied the Filipino tables. However, with the healthy lifestyle that includes meticulous diet, corn now is a latest chick in health menus with nutritional benefits.
The corn program of the Department of Agriculture mentions of the most important nutritional value that favors most diabetic folks and those who are weight conscious. Including corn in ones regular diet assures acquisition of necessary calories for daily metabolism of the body. The staple food do not just promise a luscious taste with the butter spread; likewise, it helps in skin care, boosting nervous system, digestion, and maintaining low cholesterol levels.
Athletes who feed on mais-bigas like Manny Pacquiao have high stamina due to mineral contents of corn like manganese, magnesium, copper and zinc.
One who lacks daily exercise does not necessarily get frustrated on the need to burn fats. Compared to rice, a regular diet of corn assures low sugar in the blood. The high fiber content of corn also plays a role in prevention of digestive ailments like constipation and hemorrhoids as well as colorectal cancer.
Pregnant women may also consider corn in their food cravings since it contains folate. A type of vitamin B which helps generates cells for the growing baby in the womb.
Aside from its health benefits, corn are also considered as a "brain food" since it is rich in thiamine or vitamin B1 which stimulates the brain. Its antioxidant contents help fight cancer and Alzheimer's disease.
Check out these three recipes to help you maintain your regular corn diet aside from munching it on its cob.
The corn program of the Department of Agriculture mentions of the most important nutritional value that favors most diabetic folks and those who are weight conscious. Including corn in ones regular diet assures acquisition of necessary calories for daily metabolism of the body. The staple food do not just promise a luscious taste with the butter spread; likewise, it helps in skin care, boosting nervous system, digestion, and maintaining low cholesterol levels.
Athletes who feed on mais-bigas like Manny Pacquiao have high stamina due to mineral contents of corn like manganese, magnesium, copper and zinc.
One who lacks daily exercise does not necessarily get frustrated on the need to burn fats. Compared to rice, a regular diet of corn assures low sugar in the blood. The high fiber content of corn also plays a role in prevention of digestive ailments like constipation and hemorrhoids as well as colorectal cancer.
Pregnant women may also consider corn in their food cravings since it contains folate. A type of vitamin B which helps generates cells for the growing baby in the womb.
Aside from its health benefits, corn are also considered as a "brain food" since it is rich in thiamine or vitamin B1 which stimulates the brain. Its antioxidant contents help fight cancer and Alzheimer's disease.
Check out these three recipes to help you maintain your regular corn diet aside from munching it on its cob.
2012年2月13日星期一
As Facebook IPO nears, the case for dull stocks
Investors thinking of buying a piece of Facebook after it goes public are hoping it will perform like Google, whose stock has risen 500 percent since its debut seven and a half years ago.
But they may want to spare a thought for companies slightly less exciting - a truck leasing company, perhaps, or a manufacturer of ball bearings.
Stocks of those two have left Google, and the investors who didn't get into it early, in the dust in the past several years. So have more than half the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Since the stock market peaked on Oct. 9, 2007, Ryder System Inc., which rents moving trucks, has returned 26 percent, counting dividends. Timken, the ball bearing company, 49 percent.
And the staid Johnson & Johnson, the 125-year-old maker of Tucks ointment to relieve hemorrhoids among thousands of other products, has trounced Google, too - returning 12 percent with dividends.
Google is up more than most stocks if you pick a different starting point, like 2004. But measured from the market peak, it's down 1.5 percent. In other words, the people who got in then still haven't broken even - four and half years later.
Even Microsoft, the lumbering software company whose best days are widely considered behind it, has done better, returning 12 percent, counting dividends.
The lesson is that when it comes to hot stocks, you can sit on losses for years if you happen to buy at the top and can't make up ground with dividend checks.
"They move like rockets, straight up," says Robert Russell, president of Russell & Co., a wealth management company in Ohio. "But they can fall back to earth, too."
In a filing earlier this month, Facebook said it plans to sell a yet-unknown stake for $5 billion, the largest for an Internet company's initial public offering. The buzz is that the offering could value the whole company at as much as $100 billion - more than Hewlett-Packard, AOL and Yahoo combined.
Whether the newly public stock - ticker symbol FB - will prove profitable for investors is another matter.
For a taste of the dangers of buying stock in companies in the spotlight, check out the performance of Internet IPOs last year. You've done OK if you got in at the offering price, set before the stock starts trading. But that's mostly reserved for the favored customers - pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutions. The little guy isn't doing nearly as well.
After sharp rises on the first day of trading, most stocks have fallen. That's true for Groupon Inc., the online daily deals site, Pandora Media Inc., an Internet radio operator, and the consumer reviews site Angie's List Inc.
Even the online professional network LinkedIn Corp., a stock that surged Friday on news of unexpected big quarterly profits, is down 4.6 percent from its IPO close.
In hindsight, people looking to strike it rich should have stuck with the IPOs of companies more obscure, like fertilizer maker CVR Partners. Since its public debt in April, the company, which sells nitrogen fertilizer to farmers from a factory in Kansas, is up 77 percent.
Its lucky owners also get something those of pie-in-the-sky Internet outfits can only dream about - dividends. CVR is expected to send checks to its shareholders over the next year of $2 per share, or 8 percent of its stock price even after the big run-up.
As it turns out, dividends have played a role in other recent triumphs of the boring over the bedazzling.
During the stock market swoon from Oct. 2007 to March 2009, Johnson & Johnson stock fell only half as much as Google. That's because J&J still has a fat 3.5 percent dividend yield. Google doesn't pay a dividend.
Those checks in the mail helped on the way up, too. Without dividends, J&J would have lost 2 percent since the market peak instead of returning 12 percent. Microsoft would be up just 2 percent instead of 12 percent.
Those companies can pay dividends because they make big profits, another thing lacking at many Internet companies. Internet bulls don't seem to be bothered, preferring to focus on sales. The idea is if you grow them fast, profits will come naturally.
But investors can lose patience waiting.
On Wednesday, Groupon announced that it had tripled revenue last quarter providing deals on restaurant meals, hotel stays, manicures and the like. No matter. The company also said it hadn't turned a profit - not yet at least. Its stock fell 14 percent.
Facebook is already profitable, but not enough to justify that top-end value of $100 billion. At that lofty height, the company would trade at 145 times what it earned in 2011. The S&P 500 is trading at 15 times last year's profits.
So investors are talking about Facebook's almost $3.7 billion in sales last year, which helps justify the value a bit more, maybe. At $100 billion, Facebook stock would be trading at 27 times sales. LinkedIn is trading at 20 times and Google at five.
We'd all be rich, of course, if picking stocks was just a matter of checking sales multiples or dividend yields or any other simple gauge. Apple doesn't pay a dividend, for instance, but that didn't stop it from rising. Facebook could indeed become the next Apple.
But when it comes to investing, you could do worse than avoiding exciting new businesses in the headlines and putting your money instead into tired old ones you never see articles about, and wouldn't care to read if you did.
Like a company hawking deep fryers.
National Presto Industries makes Big Daddy fryers and other kitchen gadgets as well as what's delicately called "incontinence products," better known as adult diapers. It's run out of a cinderblock converted World War II munitions factory in Eau Claire, Wis., by Maryjo Cohen, a woman so frugal she refused for years to fly anything but coach on business trips, upgrade from Microsoft Office 97 on her computer or replace the Eisenhower-era iron desks at headquarters.
Better to save money for dividends, which the company has been paying for 67 years. That's 40 years before the birth of Mark Zuckerberg, the hoodie-wearing Facebook CEO.
Cohen prefers sensible skirts and blouses but somehow has managed to lift Presto stock up 90 percent above where it was trading at the stock market peak. With dividends, it's returned 157 percent.
But they may want to spare a thought for companies slightly less exciting - a truck leasing company, perhaps, or a manufacturer of ball bearings.
Stocks of those two have left Google, and the investors who didn't get into it early, in the dust in the past several years. So have more than half the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Since the stock market peaked on Oct. 9, 2007, Ryder System Inc., which rents moving trucks, has returned 26 percent, counting dividends. Timken, the ball bearing company, 49 percent.
And the staid Johnson & Johnson, the 125-year-old maker of Tucks ointment to relieve hemorrhoids among thousands of other products, has trounced Google, too - returning 12 percent with dividends.
Google is up more than most stocks if you pick a different starting point, like 2004. But measured from the market peak, it's down 1.5 percent. In other words, the people who got in then still haven't broken even - four and half years later.
Even Microsoft, the lumbering software company whose best days are widely considered behind it, has done better, returning 12 percent, counting dividends.
The lesson is that when it comes to hot stocks, you can sit on losses for years if you happen to buy at the top and can't make up ground with dividend checks.
"They move like rockets, straight up," says Robert Russell, president of Russell & Co., a wealth management company in Ohio. "But they can fall back to earth, too."
In a filing earlier this month, Facebook said it plans to sell a yet-unknown stake for $5 billion, the largest for an Internet company's initial public offering. The buzz is that the offering could value the whole company at as much as $100 billion - more than Hewlett-Packard, AOL and Yahoo combined.
Whether the newly public stock - ticker symbol FB - will prove profitable for investors is another matter.
For a taste of the dangers of buying stock in companies in the spotlight, check out the performance of Internet IPOs last year. You've done OK if you got in at the offering price, set before the stock starts trading. But that's mostly reserved for the favored customers - pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutions. The little guy isn't doing nearly as well.
After sharp rises on the first day of trading, most stocks have fallen. That's true for Groupon Inc., the online daily deals site, Pandora Media Inc., an Internet radio operator, and the consumer reviews site Angie's List Inc.
Even the online professional network LinkedIn Corp., a stock that surged Friday on news of unexpected big quarterly profits, is down 4.6 percent from its IPO close.
In hindsight, people looking to strike it rich should have stuck with the IPOs of companies more obscure, like fertilizer maker CVR Partners. Since its public debt in April, the company, which sells nitrogen fertilizer to farmers from a factory in Kansas, is up 77 percent.
Its lucky owners also get something those of pie-in-the-sky Internet outfits can only dream about - dividends. CVR is expected to send checks to its shareholders over the next year of $2 per share, or 8 percent of its stock price even after the big run-up.
As it turns out, dividends have played a role in other recent triumphs of the boring over the bedazzling.
During the stock market swoon from Oct. 2007 to March 2009, Johnson & Johnson stock fell only half as much as Google. That's because J&J still has a fat 3.5 percent dividend yield. Google doesn't pay a dividend.
Those checks in the mail helped on the way up, too. Without dividends, J&J would have lost 2 percent since the market peak instead of returning 12 percent. Microsoft would be up just 2 percent instead of 12 percent.
Those companies can pay dividends because they make big profits, another thing lacking at many Internet companies. Internet bulls don't seem to be bothered, preferring to focus on sales. The idea is if you grow them fast, profits will come naturally.
But investors can lose patience waiting.
On Wednesday, Groupon announced that it had tripled revenue last quarter providing deals on restaurant meals, hotel stays, manicures and the like. No matter. The company also said it hadn't turned a profit - not yet at least. Its stock fell 14 percent.
Facebook is already profitable, but not enough to justify that top-end value of $100 billion. At that lofty height, the company would trade at 145 times what it earned in 2011. The S&P 500 is trading at 15 times last year's profits.
So investors are talking about Facebook's almost $3.7 billion in sales last year, which helps justify the value a bit more, maybe. At $100 billion, Facebook stock would be trading at 27 times sales. LinkedIn is trading at 20 times and Google at five.
We'd all be rich, of course, if picking stocks was just a matter of checking sales multiples or dividend yields or any other simple gauge. Apple doesn't pay a dividend, for instance, but that didn't stop it from rising. Facebook could indeed become the next Apple.
But when it comes to investing, you could do worse than avoiding exciting new businesses in the headlines and putting your money instead into tired old ones you never see articles about, and wouldn't care to read if you did.
Like a company hawking deep fryers.
National Presto Industries makes Big Daddy fryers and other kitchen gadgets as well as what's delicately called "incontinence products," better known as adult diapers. It's run out of a cinderblock converted World War II munitions factory in Eau Claire, Wis., by Maryjo Cohen, a woman so frugal she refused for years to fly anything but coach on business trips, upgrade from Microsoft Office 97 on her computer or replace the Eisenhower-era iron desks at headquarters.
Better to save money for dividends, which the company has been paying for 67 years. That's 40 years before the birth of Mark Zuckerberg, the hoodie-wearing Facebook CEO.
Cohen prefers sensible skirts and blouses but somehow has managed to lift Presto stock up 90 percent above where it was trading at the stock market peak. With dividends, it's returned 157 percent.
2012年2月12日星期日
As Facebook IPO Nears, the Case for Dull Stocks
Investors thinking of buying a piece of Facebook after it goes public are hoping it will perform like Google, whose stock has risen 500 percent since its debut seven and a half years ago.
But they may want to spare a thought for companies slightly less exciting — a truck leasing company, perhaps, or a manufacturer of ball bearings.
Stocks of those two have left Google, and the investors who didn't get into it early, in the dust in the past several years. So have more than half the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Since the stock market peaked on Oct. 9, 2007, Ryder System Inc., which rents moving trucks, has returned 26 percent, counting dividends. Timken, the ball bearing company, 49 percent.
And the staid Johnson & Johnson, the 125-year-old maker of Tucks ointment to relieve hemorrhoids among thousands of other products, has trounced Google, too — returning 12 percent with dividends.
Google is up more than most stocks if you pick a different starting point, like 2004. But measured from the market peak, it's down 1.5 percent. In other words, the people who got in then still haven't broken even — four and half years later.
Even Microsoft, the lumbering software company whose best days are widely considered behind it, has done better, returning 12 percent, counting dividends.
The lesson is that when it comes to hot stocks, you can sit on losses for years if you happen to buy at the top and can't make up ground with dividend checks.
"They move like rockets, straight up," says Robert Russell, president of Russell & Co., a wealth management company in Ohio. "But they can fall back to earth, too."
In a filing earlier this month, Facebook said it plans to sell a yet-unknown stake for $5 billion, the largest for an Internet company's initial public offering. The buzz is that the offering could value the whole company at as much as $100 billion — more than Hewlett-Packard, AOL and Yahoo combined.
Whether the newly public stock — ticker symbol FB — will prove profitable for investors is another matter.
For a taste of the dangers of buying stock in companies in the spotlight, check out the performance of Internet IPOs last year. You've done OK if you got in at the offering price, set before the stock starts trading. But that's mostly reserved for the favored customers — pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutions. The little guy isn't doing nearly as well.
After sharp rises on the first day of trading, most stocks have fallen. That's true for Groupon Inc., the online daily deals site, Pandora Media Inc., an Internet radio operator, and the consumer reviews site Angie's List Inc.
Even the online professional network LinkedIn Corp., a stock that surged Friday on news of unexpected big quarterly profits, is down 4.6 percent from its IPO close.
In hindsight, people looking to strike it rich should have stuck with the IPOs of companies more obscure, like fertilizer maker CVR Partners. Since its public debt in April, the company, which sells nitrogen fertilizer to farmers from a factory in Kansas, is up 77 percent.
Its lucky owners also get something those of pie-in-the-sky Internet outfits can only dream about — dividends. CVR is expected to send checks to its shareholders over the next year of $2 per share, or 8 percent of its stock price even after the big run-up.
As it turns out, dividends have played a role in other recent triumphs of the boring over the bedazzling.
During the stock market swoon from Oct. 2007 to March 2009, Johnson & Johnson stock fell only half as much as Google. That's because J&J still has a fat 3.5 percent dividend yield. Google doesn't pay a dividend.
Those checks in the mail helped on the way up, too. Without dividends, J&J would have lost 2 percent since the market peak instead of returning 12 percent. Microsoft would be up just 2 percent instead of 12 percent.
Those companies can pay dividends because they make big profits, another thing lacking at many Internet companies. Internet bulls don't seem to be bothered, preferring to focus on sales. The idea is if you grow them fast, profits will come naturally.
But investors can lose patience waiting.
On Wednesday, Groupon announced that it had tripled revenue last quarter providing deals on restaurant meals, hotel stays, manicures and the like. No matter. The company also said it hadn't turned a profit — not yet at least. Its stock fell 14 percent.
But they may want to spare a thought for companies slightly less exciting — a truck leasing company, perhaps, or a manufacturer of ball bearings.
Stocks of those two have left Google, and the investors who didn't get into it early, in the dust in the past several years. So have more than half the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Since the stock market peaked on Oct. 9, 2007, Ryder System Inc., which rents moving trucks, has returned 26 percent, counting dividends. Timken, the ball bearing company, 49 percent.
And the staid Johnson & Johnson, the 125-year-old maker of Tucks ointment to relieve hemorrhoids among thousands of other products, has trounced Google, too — returning 12 percent with dividends.
Google is up more than most stocks if you pick a different starting point, like 2004. But measured from the market peak, it's down 1.5 percent. In other words, the people who got in then still haven't broken even — four and half years later.
Even Microsoft, the lumbering software company whose best days are widely considered behind it, has done better, returning 12 percent, counting dividends.
The lesson is that when it comes to hot stocks, you can sit on losses for years if you happen to buy at the top and can't make up ground with dividend checks.
"They move like rockets, straight up," says Robert Russell, president of Russell & Co., a wealth management company in Ohio. "But they can fall back to earth, too."
In a filing earlier this month, Facebook said it plans to sell a yet-unknown stake for $5 billion, the largest for an Internet company's initial public offering. The buzz is that the offering could value the whole company at as much as $100 billion — more than Hewlett-Packard, AOL and Yahoo combined.
Whether the newly public stock — ticker symbol FB — will prove profitable for investors is another matter.
For a taste of the dangers of buying stock in companies in the spotlight, check out the performance of Internet IPOs last year. You've done OK if you got in at the offering price, set before the stock starts trading. But that's mostly reserved for the favored customers — pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutions. The little guy isn't doing nearly as well.
After sharp rises on the first day of trading, most stocks have fallen. That's true for Groupon Inc., the online daily deals site, Pandora Media Inc., an Internet radio operator, and the consumer reviews site Angie's List Inc.
Even the online professional network LinkedIn Corp., a stock that surged Friday on news of unexpected big quarterly profits, is down 4.6 percent from its IPO close.
In hindsight, people looking to strike it rich should have stuck with the IPOs of companies more obscure, like fertilizer maker CVR Partners. Since its public debt in April, the company, which sells nitrogen fertilizer to farmers from a factory in Kansas, is up 77 percent.
Its lucky owners also get something those of pie-in-the-sky Internet outfits can only dream about — dividends. CVR is expected to send checks to its shareholders over the next year of $2 per share, or 8 percent of its stock price even after the big run-up.
As it turns out, dividends have played a role in other recent triumphs of the boring over the bedazzling.
During the stock market swoon from Oct. 2007 to March 2009, Johnson & Johnson stock fell only half as much as Google. That's because J&J still has a fat 3.5 percent dividend yield. Google doesn't pay a dividend.
Those checks in the mail helped on the way up, too. Without dividends, J&J would have lost 2 percent since the market peak instead of returning 12 percent. Microsoft would be up just 2 percent instead of 12 percent.
Those companies can pay dividends because they make big profits, another thing lacking at many Internet companies. Internet bulls don't seem to be bothered, preferring to focus on sales. The idea is if you grow them fast, profits will come naturally.
But investors can lose patience waiting.
On Wednesday, Groupon announced that it had tripled revenue last quarter providing deals on restaurant meals, hotel stays, manicures and the like. No matter. The company also said it hadn't turned a profit — not yet at least. Its stock fell 14 percent.
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